Most pilots think accidents begin with the event.
The stall.
The spin.
The engine failure.
The weather.
The loss of control.
But in reality, accidents often begin much earlier.
They begin when margins start to erode.
A little lower than intended.
A little slower than planned.
A little more distracted.
A little more committed to the original plan.
A little less willing to go around, divert or say “not today”.
One of the strongest messages from the Ultimate High Flight Safety Forum was that very different speakers, from very different backgrounds, kept arriving at the same conclusion:
The final event is rarely the whole story.
Before the stall came reduced margin.
Before the loss of control came increased workload.
Before the accident came a series of small decisions, each of which seemed reasonable at the time.
As pilots, our challenge is not simply recognising when something has gone wrong.
It’s recognising when it is starting to go wrong.
The earlier we identify margin erosion, the more options we have available.
And in aviation, options are usually what keep us safe.
What are the first signs that tell you a flight is starting to drift away from the original plan?